FAR has released the results of its most recent Arable Industry Marketing Initiative (AIMI) Survey outlining the on-farm grain stocks (sold and unsold) as of 1 October 2013 and areas of maize, wheat, barley and oats planted, or planned to be planted, for harvest in 2014.
The figures show that:
• As previously reported, yields per hectare of wheat and barley crops were unusually high for both of the last two harvests (2012 and 2013) due to good growing conditions in Canterbury. Oat yields were low for the 2012 harvest, but more normal for the 2013 harvest. Maize grain and maize silage yields were similar and fairly average for the last two harvests; for the 2013 harvest, low yields in some regions were off-set by good yields in other regions.
• As a result of these high volumes, there are medium volumes of feed wheat and barley grain unsold on farm at the time of the survey (October 1, 2013), although these are both down on last October. For feed wheat there was an estimated 52,700 tonnes unsold (compared to 75,100t on October 15, 2012 and 7,800t on October 1, 2011) and for feed barley there was an estimated 31,900 tonnes unsold (66,300t on October 15, 2012 and 23,800t on October 1, 2011). These figures also reflect the effects of the autumn 2013 drought in the North Island which was, however, followed by good pasture growth in most regions.
• The tonnages for oats are low but the volumes unsold are up compared to unsold volumes on October 15, 2012. The tonnage of unsold maize grain was estimated to be zero on October 1, 2013 (compared to 29,700t on October 15, 2012 and 1,700t on October 1, 2011).
• Total stocks on farm (sold and unsold) of both feed wheat and feed barley as at October 1 2013, were down on total stocks at the same time in 2012, but higher than in 2011. For feed wheat, total stocks were estimated to be 162,000 tonnes on October 1, 2013, compared to 206,000t on October 15, 2012 and 55,000t on October 1, 2011. For feed barley, total stocks were 119,000 tonnes on October 1, 2013, compared to 152,000t on October 15, 2012 and 68,000t on October 1, 2011.
• The estimated reduction in unsold feed wheat from the 2013 harvest, between the AIMI Surveys on July 1, 2013 and on October 1, 2013, is about 32,000 tonnes. Similarly, the estimated reduction in unsold feed barley is about 27,000 tonnes. These reductions are perhaps lower than anticipated due to the unusually good pasture growth during the winter and early spring, following the breaking of the autumn drought.
• When plantings in the autumn and spring are added to the spring planting intentions (after October 1, 2013), the areas of most crops are similar to plantings last year (2012). The exceptions are milling wheat (predicted area up by 24%) and feed wheat (area up by 17%). The area of the biggest grain crop, feed barley, is predicted to be almost identical to last year (0.4% drop), although one third of the area was still unsown at the time of the survey. The area sown in oats is predicted to fall by about 1,000 ha, although 62% was still unsown at the time of the survey (October 1, 2013).
• The total area planted in maize is predicted to be 8% up on last year (though this estimate is within the margin of error of the survey, so in reality, there may be no change), and is almost identical to the area planted the previous year (2011); however, 95% of the maize crop was unsown at the time of the survey (October 1, 2013), so these were primarily planting intentions rather than actual plantings.
These figures reflect the position at the 1st October 2013 and there will have been changes since this time. They are based on data from the 87 (wheat, barley, oats) + 47 (maize) survey farms at October 1, 2013 which has been scaled up to the national level using the most recent Agricultural Production Statistics and maize seed sales. As with all surveys, there is a margin of error which needs to be considered in relation to this report.